There has been an immense amount of press commentary to the effect that China’s help in bringing about the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a blow to America’s influence in the Persian Gulf. This successful example of Chinese mediation, though, may actually indicate that it is Russian influence that is declining in the Middle East.
Moscow has long regretted the Soviet decision to break diplomatic relations with Israel at the time of the June 1967 Arab-Israeli war since this better enabled Washington to play the role of mediator between Israelis and Arabs. Washington’s ability to talk to all sides and Moscow’s inability to talk to Israel meant that it was the U.S. that was able to successfully mediate several Arab-Israeli agreements, including the landmark Camp David accord establishing peace between Israel and Egypt. Soviet attempts to bring about a “comprehensive” Middle East peace agreement went nowhere.
The reverse situation, though, appeared to emerge as a result of Putin’s Middle East diplomacy. Russian commentators have often pointed out in recent years that while Washington does not talk much (if at all) with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, or Hamas, Moscow has good relations with all major actors in the Middle East including all America’s traditional allies there. Thus, Moscow’s ability to talk to all sides (as Washington did in the late Cold War era) put Russia in a better position than America to help achieve Middle East peace agreements.
But this potential was not realized Despite its good relations with opposing sides in them, Moscow has not been able to help resolve any of the Middle East’s many conflicts and antagonisms, including that between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Nor has it displaced the U.S. as a mediator, as was shown by the Trump Administration-negotiated (and Biden-Administration supported) “Abraham Accords” between Israel on the one hand and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan on the other.
Like Moscow, Beijing can also talk to all parties in the Middle East. But Saudi Arabia and Iran chose Beijing, and not Moscow, to mediate between them about their agreement to resume diplomatic relations which was achieved in March 2023.
There could have been several reasons for this. With the war in Ukraine not going well for Moscow, Middle Eastern actors now see Russia as less able to act effectively in the Middle East than it was before. Russia may not continue to be as reliable an arms supplier as in the past due to both production difficulties faced by the Russian arms industry as well as Russia’s own increased need for weapons for the Ukraine war. Further, Beijing is a major buyer of oil from both Saudi Arabia and Iran while Russia is undercutting them through selling its Western-sanctioned oil to China, India, and other buyers at a deep discount. Russian President Putin’s own assiduous courting of Chinese President Xi also shows everyone that the latter is the more important world leader to work with. Xi certainly has more benefits to distribute than Putin does at the moment.
Most Russian press commentary crowed about how China’s help in bringing about the resumption of Saudi-Iranian diplomatic relations was a great blow for American influence in the region. One Russian observer specializing on China, though, saw things differently. According to Nikolai Vavilov, “The real Chinese threat [to Russia] is not in the Far East, but [for Russia] to remain out of work or in tertiary roles under Chinese global leadership.” This is hardly a welcome prospect for a state viewing itself as a great power.
It is important not to exaggerate what the Chinese-mediated agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has accomplished. Just because two states restore diplomatic relations does not mean that a rapprochement between them has occurred. Indeed, this Chinese-mediated agreement has not resolved any of the ongoing differences between Riyadh and Tehran about Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or anything else in the Middle East.
What it does show, however, is that Middle Eastern governments may no longer see Moscow as the obvious alternative to Washington to turn to for mediation. But given Russia’s own growing dependence on China, Moscow may have little choice but to smile and applaud Beijing’s ability to play the mediating role that Moscow had long sought for itself.
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