Washington, DC I was in the audience for the address given by Yemeni President Abd Rabuh Mansour Hadi today at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. He emphasized how Yemen is working with the U.S. and others to combat Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and other Islamic terrorists, Yemen is implementing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-sponsored agreement (which Washington supports) for a democratic transition in Yemen, and his new administration (in office just since February 27, 2012) is working to establish peace and security among Yemen’s many disparate groups. As he did in his speech to the UN General Assembly, President Hadi criticized the Assad regime in Syria. President Hadi also accused Iran of interfering in Yemen’s internal affairs, noting that the Yemeni government had rounded up five Iranian spy rings and was in the process of rounding up a sixth.
After the address, he took four questions from the audience before calling an end to the session. In answer to three of them—one on why he didn’t put former President Saleh on trial, another on why he had appointed so many members of Islah (an Islamist party) to office, and a third on what he was doing to ensure the progress of Yemeni women—he indicated that he was acting (or not acting) in accord with the provisions of the GCC-sponsored democratic transition agreement. When asked about the efficacy of the U.S. drone missile attacks on terrorist targets in Yemen, however, the President offered a spirited defense of them.
The U.S. Government was undoubtedly well pleased with everything President Hadi had to say. Indeed, his address appeared especially designed to please the U.S. Government. Still, though, it seems doubtful that Yemen will become completely democratic under the plan sponsored by the GCC since none of its member governments (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman) is democratic or even aspires to be. Further, blaming Iran for Yemen’s problems risks drawing attention away from—and not addressing—their primary causes: Yemen’s deep-seated poverty and internal divisions. Tehran certainly did not create these.
Compared to the problems currently being experienced by Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, and Syria, the political transition in Yemen appears to have gone rather well so far. But things have a way of going badly in Yemen. Concerted efforts on the part of the new Yemeni government, Yemen’s GCC neighbors, and the West will be needed to make sure that they do not.
GCC sponsored the “political settlement” came as compulsory necessary, to avoid Yemen failure to spill over. GCC countries have to give attention to the sad end of their support to Saleh as a dictator, thought they thought they were punishing him over supporting Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait. US have also to rectify its policies towards support given to Saleh in its anti terrorism campaign which ended up used against the uprising. Drones are doing fine. As a Yemeni, I think what is going in Yemen is going in the right direction. No fear of Islah. Iran is really behind of much of the intrigues and we know it very well. I agree that Iran is not did not create poverty and divisions, but they never helped poor Yemenis, but definitely they are financing the current internal divisions. Mark Katz, in his last paragraph, rightly said that Yemen transition, compared with Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and Syria, have gone rather well. We will give great attention to avoid anything to go bad. We thank the international community, lead by the US, for all the concerted efforts for building the New Yemen.
The key word in Mark Katz’s positive assessment of how the Yemen transition has gone so far is “comparative,” i.e. relative. Yemen has so far avoided the Libya experience of needing foreign forces to force the old regime out, as well as the Syria experience of dissent into total civil war. yemen’s National Dialogue (ND), however, has yet to grapple with the toughest issue in any transition, namely the forging of national consensus on the future of governance in Yemen. the current ND is not fully representative of southern factions nor does it offer a credible role for the youth and the civil society organizations behind them. Further, the northern Houthi tribal coalition has yet to specify its terms for remaining in the union. There are two possible scenarios in this regard: a formula could emerge from the ND and imposed as a fait accompli on the rest of the country, inviting almost inevitably, a violent reaction in dissenting parts of Yemen or, no formula emerges and the ND stumbles along indefinitely. a pre-ND dialogue, which was ably conducted by UN envoy Jamal Benomar, ended inconclusively – and perhaps the word ended is not appropriate here as informal, but nonetheless critical, discussions continue outside the formal channels of the ND. it is here that the key to success will likely be found.
Nabeel A. Khoury
National Defense University